SJG99 wrote:

Stan A. Einstein wrote:
You've been banging on about this as if it's fact for over a month now, but you keep forgetting that the teams above us all have to drop points no matter what happens because they're playing each other, and if we've made up the points to be there too, we'll have beaten some of them as well.

To finish in the final play-off place:
We have to make up 8 points and GD over Coventry (who we play, and also play Notts Co and Lincoln) - 3 more wins than them over 9 matches
7 points and GD over Lincoln (who have to play Exeter, Carlisle, Wycombe, Coventry and Accrington) - 2 wins and 2 draws better over 9 matches
7 points over Swindon (who have to play Exeter and Carlisle and us, and Accrington) - 2 wins and a draw better over 9 matches
3 and GD over Carlisle, (who have to play Lincoln, Swindon, Luton and us) with a game in hand. - 1 win better over 9 matches (they have 8 ).

County are playing Coventry, Swindon, Accrington (all home), and Carlisle (away) of the top 10.

We have already lost fewer matches than all of the competing sides other than Lincoln who have the toughest run-in, we're playing three of those four sides so we're in control of our destiny to a certain extent, and in addition to that the likes of Exeter and Mansfield also have games against other top sides and could slide back into the equation with a particularly poor run.

On the flip side, if we win enough games to be in contention for the play-offs, we're not going to have to worry about the sides already behind us.

So, it's not that unlikely, but we need to win the key matches and of course as many others as possible, the rest should take care of itself. Realistically Coventry have the easiest run-in so we absolutely have to beat them, hope they lose to Lincoln (who are likely to drop points to teams around them), and us beat Swindon in amongst winning enough other games to make the Carlisle game on the final day have a chance of mattering.

Okay we can resolve this.

Let us see how many points the team who finish 7th achieve.

Presently we have 52 points with 9 games remaining. Giving us 79 points if we win all 9.

6 wins 2 draws and 1 defeat would be a great finish. It would give us 72 points. If 72 points is good enough for 7th place I take your point. And you will have been correct.

By the way this is not reliant on whether County get to the play-offs. If the team in 7th position are on less than 72 points you will be right regardless of where County finish.

Just a bit of fun, we will know by 30th April.