Value bets.

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Stan A. Einstein

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Value bets.

Postby Stan A. Einstein » July 12th, 2018, 12:01 am

I don't bet myself. But for those of you who do, and were wise enough to follow my advice and get on Croatia at 5/1 I guess that you will be feeling pretty smug now. I would be tempted to lay France in the final and you'll be wuids in whatever the result Sunday.

The trick is to bet on not what you think will happen, but to find the value bet. The bet where the odds favour you. So if you work out that the true odds of an event are 10/1 and the bookies are offering 20/1 you take the bet. Not withstanding you will lose nine times in ten when you do win the amount you win gives you a profit.

For instance I think that you would get very high odds on England hosting the 2022 World Cup. But whilst I think it unlikely, I don't think it impossible that the problems with Qatar are just too great and at the last moment FIFA will need to find a new host.

Likewise whilst I think that Newport County will probably play their home games at Rodney Parade next season, if you can get offs of 25/1 that their home games will be played once again in Gloucestershire I'd take it.

After all it's happened twice before.

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