SJG99 wrote:

ButchersDog wrote:

Caerleon Exile wrote:Excellent win, great to get our first away win of the season. Port Vale is a tricky place to go so happy with that. Oldham next week will be a much tougher test.

Looking at the table so far at teams we've played I think we shouldn't get too carried away.

Mansfield L (8th)
Exeter D (9th)
Crewe W (14th)
Port Vale W (19th)
Grimsby W (20th)
Notts County W (24th)

A big part of the reason that of those above that are in the bottom half is because we beat them...

After 6 games any of those teams could have lost to us and still had 15 points from winning the other 5 matches. None of the ones we've beaten (inc Cambridge in EFL Cup) are in the top half. We're in a very false position - unless the Mansfield game was a blip.

I don't agree with your last sentence at all. We can only play what is in front of us. We may be in an unusual and unexpected position for this stage of the season, but very false.........I think not.
When we played Mansfield they were the pre season favourites for champions.
Exeter were in the top two when we played them (albeit early doors, but they will be there or thereabouts)
When we played Crewe they had just come off a 6-0 victory the game before.
Notts County will also be there imo at the end.
Grimsby and Port Vale - great results. They will be lower end to mid table at the seasons end imo.
I don't think we will be second at the end but I have revamped my season prediction. Just outside the playoffs at the end for me now. Great start.

SJG99 wrote:

ButchersDog wrote:

Caerleon Exile wrote:Excellent win, great to get our first away win of the season. Port Vale is a tricky place to go so happy with that. Oldham next week will be a much tougher test.

Looking at the table so far at teams we've played I think we shouldn't get too carried away.

Mansfield L (8th)
Exeter D (9th)
Crewe W (14th)
Port Vale W (19th)
Grimsby W (20th)
Notts County W (24th)

A big part of the reason that of those above that are in the bottom half is because we beat them...

After 6 games any of those teams could have lost to us and still had 15 points from winning the other 5 matches. None of the ones we've beaten (inc Cambridge in EFL Cup) are in the top half. We're in a very false position - unless the Mansfield game was a blip.

If we're in a false position why can't any of those other teams be? Port Vale and Notts County will finish a lot higher.

Marky wrote:

SJG99 wrote:

ButchersDog wrote: A big part of the reason that of those above that are in the bottom half is because we beat them...

After 6 games any of those teams could have lost to us and still had 15 points from winning the other 5 matches. None of the ones we've beaten (inc Cambridge in EFL Cup) are in the top half. We're in a very false position - unless the Mansfield game was a blip.

If we're in a false position why can't any of those other teams be? Port Vale and Notts County will finish a lot higher.

I think Notts will finish lot higher too, they're absolutely in a false position - apart from a loss to 17th, and a 4-0 defeat to 5th, drew home with 4th, lost narrowly to 2nd, and have lost to 1st and 7th. So whilst they don't have many points, they've also played 5 of the top 7 in their matches already. They could feasibly be 8th or 9th without breaking form over the course of the season, just as we could. Their promotion odds reflect that, they were still shorter odds than the Exiles last week.

The whole concept of a false position is from playing a lot of good or bad teams. Notts have played a lot of good ones, we've played a lot of bad ones. Obviously there's a certain degree of assumption that SOME of the results are with form, though, but after 6 matches it's perfectly possible to have just had a run of good opponents.

CBA to check Port Vale though.

pembsexile wrote: I don't agree with your last sentence at all. We can only play what is in front of us. We may be in an unusual and unexpected position for this stage of the season, but very false.........I think not.
When we played Mansfield they were the pre season favourites for champions.
Exeter were in the top two when we played them (albeit early doors, but they will be there or thereabouts)
When we played Crewe they had just come off a 6-0 victory the game before.
Notts County will also be there imo at the end.
Grimsby and Port Vale - great results. They will be lower end to mid table at the seasons end imo.
I don't think we will be second at the end but I have revamped my season prediction. Just outside the playoffs at the end for me now. Great start.

You can still draw a lot of reasonable assumptions from the limited data.

"We can only play what is in front of us". Yes, and if we'd beaten Mansfield we'd look a lot more viable as contenders. We need to beat some top half teams. They were pre-season favourites (though that doesn't mean anything) and they beat us, which doesn't make us any better. Mansfield and Forest Green are both undefeated so far despite being 7th/8th.

Exeter do look like a decent side and I said that was our best result so far - they've already played the top 3 but only got one point. They've beaten 10th, 17th and 22nd, drawn with 2nd, and lost to 1st and 3rd, so you can make a decent case for them somewhere between 3rd and 10th at the moment. They still have a better GD than County too.

Crewe's 6-0 win was against Morecambe, who still look dire after a few more games, and Crewe have since LOST by 6 to Colchester too. Lost to 2nd, thrashed by 4th, lost to 10th, drew with 10 man 3rd placed team, beat 22nd and 24th. Crewe look like a middling to bottom half side.

Grimsby have lost away to 2nd (with 10 men), lost home to 5th, lost 4-1 at home to 7th, drew home to 1st, drew away to 3rd (with 10 men) and beat 23rd away despite having 10 men. Tbh if they manage to keep 11 players on the pitch they'll expect to be a lot higher than 20th, but suspensions and playing with 10 men means their results are difficult to read - but they haven't beaten anyone above the relegation zone despite drawing with the leaders. They could realistically be anywhere from 8th to 20th!

Notts County I covered above - they've played a lot of top sides already and could be upper mid-table after they play some of the lower sides.

I also think we'll be somewhere near play-off contention again - but that is significantly lower than where we are at the moment.