Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

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newgroundrodney

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Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » February 25th, 2019, 6:55 pm

First of all, I'd like to stress that I'm only putting these figures up because someone on here ASKED for it to be done. I can't remember who, maybe Hippy, or willthiswork, but I genuinely don't recall who.
The last game played before the end of the transfer window was Port Vale (h). It's maybe still early days for a meaningful comparison, but here are the figures anyway:

Before the transfer window closed:
Played 5 games.......5 points (1 point per game)
Played 10 games.....8 points (0.8 pts per game)

After the transfer window closed
Played 5 games.......6 points (1.2 points per game)

It will be interesting to see our 'points per game' figure in five games time.My hope is that we're going to hit a rich vein of form.
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The NCFC Hippy

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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby The NCFC Hippy » February 26th, 2019, 10:02 am

It wasn’t me NGR but appreciated as always none the less .
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 3rd, 2019, 4:37 pm

***UPDATE SHOWING 6 GAME COMPARISON***:

Before the transfer window closed:
Played 6 games.......5 points (0.8333 pts per game) = 38 pts a season

After the transfer window closed
Played 6 games.......9 points (1.5 points per game) = 69 pts a season

So we're collecting 80% more points since the end of the transfer window.
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wattsville_boy

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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby wattsville_boy » March 5th, 2019, 5:57 pm

newgroundrodney wrote:***UPDATE SHOWING 6 GAME COMPARISON***:

Before the transfer window closed:
Played 6 games.......5 points (0.8333 pts per game) = 38 pts a season

After the transfer window closed
Played 6 games.......9 points (1.5 points per game) = 69 pts a season

So we're collecting 80% more points since the end of the transfer window.


Actually with 12 games left at 1.5 points a game County would end up on 65 points...
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 5th, 2019, 6:00 pm

wattsville_boy wrote:
newgroundrodney wrote:***UPDATE SHOWING 6 GAME COMPARISON***:

Before the transfer window closed:
Played 6 games.......5 points (0.8333 pts per game) = 38 pts a season

After the transfer window closed
Played 6 games.......9 points (1.5 points per game) = 69 pts a season

So we're collecting 80% more points since the end of the transfer window.


Actually with 12 games left at 1.5 points a game County would end up on 65 points...


I was really referring to the 'rate' at which were collecting points before and after the window, not the final amount for the season. Though 65 is actually not far off as it stands.
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby wattsville_boy » March 5th, 2019, 6:35 pm

newgroundrodney wrote:
wattsville_boy wrote:
newgroundrodney wrote:***UPDATE SHOWING 6 GAME COMPARISON***:

Before the transfer window closed:
Played 6 games.......5 points (0.8333 pts per game) = 38 pts a season

After the transfer window closed
Played 6 games.......9 points (1.5 points per game) = 69 pts a season

So we're collecting 80% more points since the end of the transfer window.


Actually with 12 games left at 1.5 points a game County would end up on 65 points...


I was really referring to the 'rate' at which were collecting points before and after the window, not the final amount for the season. Though 65 is actually not far off as it stands.


I realised how you arrived at the figure (46 + 23 = 69) but it is false as 34 games have already been played. Both figures won't be enough for the play-off positions, for that County need to be accumulating 2 points a game over the remaining matches
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 5th, 2019, 6:40 pm

I believe, if we put a bit of a run together, and others slip up, we could probably do it on 1.8 pts per game...but in reality I think we'll miss out, but only just.
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 16th, 2019, 2:10 pm

*** UPDATE SHOWING 9 GAME COMPARISON *** (after the Cheltenham (h) game)


Points collected before the transfer window ended:

PLAYED.............9
WON..................2
DRAWN.............2
LOST.................5 ( 4 away, 1 home)
FOR..................10
AGAINST..........14
PTS....................8

Points collected after the transfer window ended:

PLAYED.............9
WON..................4
DRAWN.............0
LOST..................5 ( 4 away, 1 home )
FOR...................8
AGAINST..........11
PTS...................12
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby Amberexile » March 16th, 2019, 2:44 pm

Mainly down to Poole?
Could you do similar stats for games since he returned and before?
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 31st, 2019, 9:19 am

Here is the 10-game comparison:

Before the transfer window ended:

PLAYED...............10
WON......................2
DRAWN.................2
LOST......................6
FOR......................11
AGAINST..............16
DIFF......................(-5)
POINTS...................8


After the transfer window ended:
PLAYED...............10
WON......................5
DRAWN.................0
LOST......................5
FOR......................11
AGAINST..............12
DIFF......................(-1)
PTS.......................15
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby wattsville_boy » March 31st, 2019, 1:04 pm

If you break the 10 games into home and away fixtures:

Home - 4 games = 9 points (2.25 points per game)
Away - 6 games = 6 points (1 point per game)

The remaining fixtures are 5 home and 3 away. If current form continues then the projection would be 69 points
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 31st, 2019, 1:07 pm

wattsville_boy wrote:If you break the 10 games into home and away fixtures:

Home - 4 games = 9 points (2.25 points per game)
Away - 6 games = 6 points (1 point per game)

The remaining fixtures are 5 home and 3 away. If current form continues then the projection would be 69 points


...by extension, if other teams' form is maintained, 69 pts currently would see us finish in 8th place, missing out on the Play-Offs by two points.
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby wattsville_boy » March 31st, 2019, 1:40 pm

newgroundrodney wrote:
wattsville_boy wrote:If you break the 10 games into home and away fixtures:

Home - 4 games = 9 points (2.25 points per game)
Away - 6 games = 6 points (1 point per game)

The remaining fixtures are 5 home and 3 away. If current form continues then the projection would be 69 points


...by extension, if other teams' form is maintained, 69 pts currently would see us finish in 8th place, missing out on the Play-Offs by two points.


...but (at least) on paper the three away games appear to be ones where County can accrue greater than their current 1 point per game average (Cambridge, Macclesfield and Morecambe). Conversely the five home games (Tranmere, Swindon, Bury, Lincoln and Oldham) look like they may be difficult to accrue the 11 points average from...

At the very least it's keeping interest in the season going for County fans into the last few weeks of the season
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » March 31st, 2019, 1:48 pm

wattsville_boy wrote:
newgroundrodney wrote:
wattsville_boy wrote:If you break the 10 games into home and away fixtures:

Home - 4 games = 9 points (2.25 points per game)
Away - 6 games = 6 points (1 point per game)

The remaining fixtures are 5 home and 3 away. If current form continues then the projection would be 69 points


...by extension, if other teams' form is maintained, 69 pts currently would see us finish in 8th place, missing out on the Play-Offs by two points.


...but (at least) on paper the three away games appear to be ones where County can accrue greater than their current 1 point per game average (Cambridge, Macclesfield and Morecambe). Conversely the five home games (Tranmere, Swindon, Bury, Lincoln and Oldham) look like they may be difficult to accrue the 11 points average from...

At the very least it's keeping interest in the season going for County fans into the last few weeks of the season


Yep...we're still in this. Just a moderate improvement, bit of a push, could give us a grandstand finish to the season!
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Re: Points before / after transfer window, a comparison.

Postby newgroundrodney » April 14th, 2019, 11:07 am

Here is the 13-game comparison:

Before the transfer window ended:

PLAYED...............13
WON......................3
DRAWN.................3
LOST......................7
FOR......................16
AGAINST..............20
DIFF......................(-4)
POINTS................12


[b]After the transfer window ended


PLAYED...............13
WON......................6
DRAWN.................2
LOST......................5
FOR......................14
AGAINST..............12
DIFF......................(+2)
PTS.......................20

So, a 67% improvement seen since the transfer window ended, comparing an equal number of games either side.
We only need another 6% and we're in the Play-Offs!..... this is do-able.
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