rncfc wrote:

Lysaght Dancer wrote:If I was the WRU I would be negotiating with us for a 5 year extension on the agreement, as it will maintain the value of their asset, and it’s an asset that they will find difficult to sell.

They will find it extremely hard to get investment for housing because the new housing stock for Newport is over developed by a good few years.

If they build a hotel and leisure facilities that will help but a guaranteed £150k a year plus from us will cover their borrowings on the asset.

It’s convuluted but I can only summise that they probably need us, in balance.

It's nice to think they need us, but the reality is that they probably don't.

I haven't run the sums to any degree of accuracy, but they would very quickly replace the income we generate if they could turn the pitch into a 4G one and rent it out throughout the year. They'd also diversify their income base thus reducing risk, and remove the need to relay an expensive desso pitch every 12 months.

I'm not convinced they need us at all to be honest. Either way, I'm not confident we'll find out any time soon.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

rncfc wrote:

Lysaght Dancer wrote:If I was the WRU I would be negotiating with us for a 5 year extension on the agreement, as it will maintain the value of their asset, and it’s an asset that they will find difficult to sell.

They will find it extremely hard to get investment for housing because the new housing stock for Newport is over developed by a good few years.

If they build a hotel and leisure facilities that will help but a guaranteed £150k a year plus from us will cover their borrowings on the asset.

It’s convuluted but I can only summise that they probably need us, in balance.

It's nice to think they need us, but the reality is that they probably don't.

I haven't run the sums to any degree of accuracy, but they would very quickly replace the income we generate if they could turn the pitch into a 4G one and rent it out throughout the year. They'd also diversify their income base thus reducing risk, and remove the need to relay an expensive desso pitch every 12 months.

I'm not convinced they need us at all to be honest. Either way, I'm not confident we'll find out any time soon.

I was about to write exactly the same. Thank you for saving me the bother.

George Street-Bridge wrote:4G would also need regular maintenance and replacement, and obviously the more so the more use it got. Would that really be a bigger earner than hosting L2 football?

whoareya wrote:
I personally cant see RP as an attractive venue for concerts etc.

Amberexile wrote:Talking about revenue is all well and fine but it is profit that drives commercial organisations.
When we were publicly arguing about the cost increase of using RP when WRU took over, their response that they were still making a loss on having us there.
If true, they would be better of kicking us out and taking the do nothing option.
All other options could be subjected to a profit/loss analysis and acted on appropriately but the County/no-County decision seems straightforward if driven by the bottom line.

rncfc wrote:

whoareya wrote:If the WRU sell the Dragons but keep RP, then the Dragons will be tenants the same(ish) as us. As basket-case as the WRU sometime looks, it would be unthinkable for them to terminate our tenancy and the income we generate for no apparent reason - unless they'd use future Dragons tenancy revenue to replace ours?.

Surely they'd want both?

If they put down 4G they can replace any income lost from us by being able to rent the ground out 7 days a week to the public (i.e. like Cwmbran Stadium). This is lower risk than having two tenants which have historically operated at a huge annual loss and one of which is only being propped up by a spate of unexpected cup runs which will eventually stop. It also reduces their cost base as 4G is cheaper to maintain that desso.

This is what they wanted to do at the start, but we ruined their plans by miraculously escaping relegation and were saved by our lease agreement. Once the lease agreement runs out, the WRU can implement their 4G plans without any legal recourse.

I imagine we will then be given an option to renew at a lower cost, but this would involve us operating in the National League at best seeing as crap plastic pitches aren't allowed in the football league. The WRU do allow these pitches for the rugby as I think the Blues have one.

Glass half empty view perhaps, but in the absence of any public statements to the contrary I imagine this version of events is far more likely than closing our eyes for 4 years and hoping the negotiating fairies are going to come up with a solution.

whoareya wrote:

Amberexile wrote:Talking about revenue is all well and fine but it is profit that drives commercial organisations.
When we were publicly arguing about the cost increase of using RP when WRU took over, their response that they were still making a loss on having us there.
If true, they would be better of kicking us out and taking the do nothing option.
All other options could be subjected to a profit/loss analysis and acted on appropriately but the County/no-County decision seems straightforward if driven by the bottom line.

Its all part of the game for renegotiating terms - we wouldn't have been there in the first place if they were losing money on the deal.

More likely to be the 'upwards only' rent tactics that Landlords use everywhere, with us losing money in the longer term, not them.

whoareya wrote:

Amberexile wrote:Talking about revenue is all well and fine but it is profit that drives commercial organisations.
When we were publicly arguing about the cost increase of using RP when WRU took over, their response that they were still making a loss on having us there.
If true, they would be better of kicking us out and taking the do nothing option.
All other options could be subjected to a profit/loss analysis and acted on appropriately but the County/no-County decision seems straightforward if driven by the bottom line.

Its all part of the game for renegotiating terms - we wouldn't have been there in the first place if they were losing money on the deal.

More likely to be the 'upwards only' rent tactics that Landlords use everywhere, with us losing money in the longer term, not them.

Lysaght Dancer wrote:Stan, you have no factual evidence whatsoever that the WRU can make more money without us.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

Lysaght Dancer wrote:Stan, you have no factual evidence whatsoever that the WRU can make more money without us.

I have only an opinion. Which I am expressing. In my opinion anyone who relies on an opinion expressed on a Cardiff rugby forum is being somewhat naive.