Final Positions Prediction

Newport County natter & football chatter.
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Bonson&Hunt

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Final Positions Prediction

Postby Bonson&Hunt » April 15th, 2019, 1:05 pm

Using past form for each team that could make the playoffs within our range specifically home vs top6, away vs top6, 7-12, 13-18, 19-24 found the following. Part points due to using % of 3 for each match left. So it looks like still 2 points adrift, but we shall see.

6 Forest Green 71.7
7 Exeter 71.05
8 County 69.1
9 Carlisle 67.2
10 Stevenage 66
11 Swindon 65.6
12 Colchester 65.6
13 Oldham 65.2
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newgroundrodney

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby newgroundrodney » April 15th, 2019, 6:35 pm

Some great numbers there.
My projection has us missing out by 4 points currently. But I think yours may prove more accurate at season's end.
Cracking bit of data though!
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papajohn

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby papajohn » April 17th, 2019, 4:40 pm

Predictive analysis is tough. Check our weekly match predictions as an example. Data provides a modicum of comfort but you just can't rely on past performance, for example, why did we get stuffed 0-6 by Yeovil on 15th September then beat them 1-3 on 30th March? W.T.F. happened at the Dell in October 1996 when Southampton beat Man U, who were sweeping everyone aside at that time, 6-3!? Who would have predicted that? Anyway best of luck with your forecasts, Que Sera Sera.
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Amberexile

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby Amberexile » April 17th, 2019, 5:52 pm

papajohn wrote:Predictive analysis is tough. Check our weekly match predictions as an example. Data provides a modicum of comfort but you just can't rely on past performance, for example, why did we get stuffed 0-6 by Yeovil on 15th September then beat them 1-3 on 30th March? W.T.F. happened at the Dell in October 1996 when Southampton beat Man U, who were sweeping everyone aside at that time, 6-3!? Who would have predicted that? Anyway best of luck with your forecasts, Que Sera Sera.


Was that the infamous grey shirts changed at half time match?
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papajohn

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby papajohn » April 17th, 2019, 10:04 pm

Could be Amber. Fergie was having a squeaky bum too.
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Bonson&Hunt

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby Bonson&Hunt » April 19th, 2019, 5:28 pm

Great update after todays scores!

6 Forest Green 74.2
8 County 71.1
7 Exeter 69.05
9 Carlisle 68.6
10 Stevenage 67.4
11 Colchester 66.8
12 Swindon 64
13 Oldham 63.9

Previous Week
6 Forest Green 71.7
7 Exeter 71.05
8 County 69.1
9 Carlisle 67.2
10 Stevenage 66
11 Swindon 65.6
12 Colchester 65.6
13 Oldham 65.2
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Bonson&Hunt

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Re: Final Positions Prediction

Postby Bonson&Hunt » April 22nd, 2019, 5:17 pm

Easter Monday Update
6 Forest Green 75.4
7 County 69.85
8 Exeter 68.8
9 Carlisle 66.8
10 Colchester 66.2
11 Stevenage 66
12 Oldham 65.35
13 Swindon 63

Good Friday
6 Forest Green 74.2
7 County 71.1
8 Exeter 69.05
9 Carlisle 68.6
10 Stevenage 67.4
11 Colchester 66.8
12 Swindon 64
13 Oldham 63.9

13th April
6 Forest Green 71.7
7 Exeter 71.05
8 County 69.1
9 Carlisle 67.2
10 Stevenage 66
11 Swindon 65.6
12 Colchester 65.6
13 Oldham 65.2

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