This is a strange L2 season. I’m not sure that previous points attained is a good indicator of what will be required this season. All the top teams have lost a lot of games.

What I do think is happening is that groups of teams are appearing together in little pockets. We have won three on the bounce but have only gone up a couple of places. Until very recently, some of the top teams were losing like us and it didn’t have a massive effect on the league table. I know we were top on New Years Day but I believe that our recent form, if played in recent years would have seen us slide even further down the table. That hasn’t happened. How bizarre.

The top three teams are separated by one point. Then there is four points to the play off teams. Only one point separates the four teams. Then there is a further three points to eight and another three to ninth.

This is the very strange bit. Goal difference at the season end could be crucial. Of the four teams in play off places, we have the best record. However, of the top ten challenging teams, with regards to goal difference we currently have only the sixth best record. Strange indeed, and there have certainly been some strange results this season. There will probably be more.

I agree with that Pembs. Given our dreadful run, like you I would have thought we’d be well out of the running but happily we’re not. I’d like to know what you think a team will need this year in terms of points for promotion and playoffs. My feelings are that it’s going to be a high requirement this year and my guess is that we need 20 points for a playoff place and 27 for an automatic but that does seem a lot!

And looking at the run in, Mansfield will have a large part to play as they’re playing all the top teams. I fear we have a very tough last half a dozen or so which means to my mind only playoffs are a reasonable ask, any thoughts?

Somewhere amongst the remaining fixtures, top six teams will play each other. They can't both win, points will be dropped. Two rivals draw whilst we win, that's two points gained.

lowandhard wrote:I agree with that Pembs. Given our dreadful run, like you I would have thought we’d be well out of the running but happily we’re not. I’d like to know what you think a team will need this year in terms of points for promotion and playoffs. My feelings are that it’s going to be a high requirement this year and my guess is that we need 20 points for a playoff place and 27 for an automatic but that does seem a lot!

I think the opposite actually. I am not sure what the average points over 5 seasons was for automatic promotion and making the play offs, but I would have thought that given the number of losses by the top teams this year, that average for both autos and play offs will go down by about 5/6 points. Possibly even 66 may get us 7th spot. Speculation eh? It’s all guesswork at the moment.

pembsexile wrote:

lowandhard wrote:I agree with that Pembs. Given our dreadful run, like you I would have thought we’d be well out of the running but happily we’re not. I’d like to know what you think a team will need this year in terms of points for promotion and playoffs. My feelings are that it’s going to be a high requirement this year and my guess is that we need 20 points for a playoff place and 27 for an automatic but that does seem a lot!

I think the opposite actually. I am not sure what the average points over 5 seasons was for automatic promotion and making the play offs, but I would have thought that given the number of losses by the top teams this year, that average for both autos and play offs will go down by about 5/6 points. Possibly even 66 may get us 7th spot. Speculation eh? It’s all guesswork at the moment.

Yes it is guesswork and probably based on emotion as much as it is analysis Interesting season though.

lowandhard wrote:

pembsexile wrote:

lowandhard wrote:I agree with that Pembs. Given our dreadful run, like you I would have thought we’d be well out of the running but happily we’re not. I’d like to know what you think a team will need this year in terms of points for promotion and playoffs. My feelings are that it’s going to be a high requirement this year and my guess is that we need 20 points for a playoff place and 27 for an automatic but that does seem a lot!

I think the opposite actually. I am not sure what the average points over 5 seasons was for automatic promotion and making the play offs, but I would have thought that given the number of losses by the top teams this year, that average for both autos and play offs will go down by about 5/6 points. Possibly even 66 may get us 7th spot. Speculation eh? It’s all guesswork at the moment.

Yes it is guesswork and probably based on emotion as much as it is analysis Interesting season though.

The average number of points for third place over the last 5 seasons was 84
If all teams in the top 12 keep to the same average points per game that they currently have for the rest of this season, Tranmere would finish third on 80 points
The average number of point for seventh place over the last 5 seasons was 72
On the same basis as above, Exeter would finish seventh on 74 - We would finish 5th on 77
That will of course not all happen but may give an idea.

Thanks for those figures Amberexile. Based on my previous assumption, that should mean that this season 78/79 points should get 3rd place. It also suggests that 66/67 should get 7th. That of course relies on my prediction that these lower points required will be as a result of most of the top teams losing a lot of games this season. Watch my prediction be blown out of the water by reality. Cmon County, prove me wrong.

The points required for a promotion spot and a play off spot are almost certainly going to be down on a "normal" season. There are still so many teams that could figure in the play-off picture and loads playing each other that realistically we won't know either until the last few games. It makes it exciting, especially the longer County can stay in the top 4 or 5.

With the three recent wins it's looking like County have had their wobble and are out the other side (finally!). Confidence must be high again and with so many of the teams in and around County still to be played again before the seasons end then County have it in their own hands to win an automatic promotion spot. No pressure!