Experience will be key.

Newport County natter & football chatter.
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mad norm

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby mad norm » April 7th, 2021, 10:45 am

We need to play better than we have post Christmas is my in depth analysis
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excessbee

Re: Experience will be key.

Postby excessbee » April 7th, 2021, 10:50 am

Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's not just about how many matches we win, but whom we beat. Beating Cambridge and Cheltenham will be less important than beating Carlisle and Exeter. What also needs to be factored in is how many of the chasing pack have to play each other. I'm sticking with my plan of reassessment after each round of matches. Never before has the cliche of 'take each match as it comes' been more appropriate.
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pembsexile

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby pembsexile » April 7th, 2021, 11:03 am

excessbee wrote:Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's not just about how many matches we win, but whom we beat. Beating Cambridge and Cheltenham will be less important than beating Carlisle and Exeter. What also needs to be factored in is how many of the chasing pack have to play each other. I'm sticking with my plan of reassessment after each round of matches. Never before has the cliche of 'take each match as it comes' been more appropriate.


Never before in the field of football conflict have so many points been owed by so many (teams) to so few (fans).
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mad norm

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby mad norm » April 7th, 2021, 11:49 am

pembsexile wrote:
excessbee wrote:Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's not just about how many matches we win, but whom we beat. Beating Cambridge and Cheltenham will be less important than beating Carlisle and Exeter. What also needs to be factored in is how many of the chasing pack have to play each other. I'm sticking with my plan of reassessment after each round of matches. Never before has the cliche of 'take each match as it comes' been more appropriate.


Never before in the field of football conflict have so many points been owed by so many (teams) to so few (fans).

Stick to coin collecting pembs :roll:
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Amberexile

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby Amberexile » April 7th, 2021, 12:08 pm

pembsexile wrote:
Recent previous seasons are a pretty reliable indicator (not guaranteed though) of what is required for the playoffs. If we take 7th place;

In 2019 County got 7th with 71 points
In 2018 Lincoln got 7th with 75 points
In 2017 Blackpool got 7th with 70 points
In 2016 Wimbledon got 7th with 75 points
In 2015 Plymouth got 7th with 71 points

If we repeat our last 8 game average of points per game (1.5), we will end up on 72 points. This average is slightly below our season average. I suggest we need to improve our points per game average and get a final points tally of at least 74 points. 14 out of 24 available. We are probably not going to go undefeated as we have some tough games coming up. Four wins and two draws, that should suffice. We can certainly do it if we manage to repeat our form of the first part of the season.

Late season consistency, that is the key. Carlisle are on a run, we need to watch the teams below us as they will push on. The teams above us in the playoffs seem to be faltering slightly. This probably won’t last and they may turn it around. We need to take advantage now.

74 points this season is my prediction of what is required for 7th place.


That's a great thing about numbers Pembs, you can play with them all day long. Another way of looking at the same thing is how many points was one more than the eighth placed team in each season i.e. enough to just scrape into the playoffs. The figures then become:
In 2019 Colchester got 8th with 70 points so 71 were required
In 2018 Mansfield got 8th with 72 points so 73 were required
In 2017 Colchester got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2016 Orient got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2015 Luton got 8th with 68 points so 69 were required

I reckon your 74 is a good target for this season as top three is probably beyond us now.
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rncfc

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby rncfc » April 7th, 2021, 12:28 pm

Amberexile wrote:
pembsexile wrote:
Recent previous seasons are a pretty reliable indicator (not guaranteed though) of what is required for the playoffs. If we take 7th place;

In 2019 County got 7th with 71 points
In 2018 Lincoln got 7th with 75 points
In 2017 Blackpool got 7th with 70 points
In 2016 Wimbledon got 7th with 75 points
In 2015 Plymouth got 7th with 71 points

If we repeat our last 8 game average of points per game (1.5), we will end up on 72 points. This average is slightly below our season average. I suggest we need to improve our points per game average and get a final points tally of at least 74 points. 14 out of 24 available. We are probably not going to go undefeated as we have some tough games coming up. Four wins and two draws, that should suffice. We can certainly do it if we manage to repeat our form of the first part of the season.

Late season consistency, that is the key. Carlisle are on a run, we need to watch the teams below us as they will push on. The teams above us in the playoffs seem to be faltering slightly. This probably won’t last and they may turn it around. We need to take advantage now.

74 points this season is my prediction of what is required for 7th place.


That's a great thing about numbers Pembs, you can play with them all day long. Another way of looking at the same thing is how many points was one more than the eighth placed team in each season i.e. enough to just scrape into the playoffs. The figures then become:
In 2019 Colchester got 8th with 70 points so 71 were required
In 2018 Mansfield got 8th with 72 points so 73 were required
In 2017 Colchester got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2016 Orient got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2015 Luton got 8th with 68 points so 69 were required

I reckon your 74 is a good target for this season as top three is probably beyond us now.


Top 3 is not even close to being beyond us, based on numbers alone. It's the fact we generally haven't been playing well which unfortunately makes it unlikely.

If we can somehow find some form from somewhere, we could definitely finish top 3. Win our game in hand, and we're 1 point off 3rd with a superior goal difference!

If we were in this position having started poorly and were creeping up the table rather than slipping down it, I would go as far as to say we were in a strong position for the top 3. It's the crap form and poor style of football in recent months which is the big hurdle to overcome.

For me, we need to change our mindset from one of "let's not get beat" to one which says "let's go out and win". We have good players, but practically all of them are playing within themselves due to what I can only deduce must be team instructions.
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Collars

Re: Experience will be key.

Postby Collars » April 7th, 2021, 1:56 pm

Amazing how quickly things change. Last week I thought we're not far off automatic but we need 4 teams to slip up. Some did at the weekend so now we win our game in hand and we're only relying on 2 teams faltering. Equally I had FGR as strong contenders for automatic but now without Matt they may struggle for goals. I think I would take a draw at Mansfield friday as a positive result. Beat Carlisle at home and then we should have knocked them out of the reckoning.
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pembsexile

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby pembsexile » April 7th, 2021, 2:47 pm

Interesting thread this, I’m enjoying it. As AE has mentioned, you can play around with numbers to your hearts content but it is the final number that counts. Getting there is the anxious bit.

I think we have just better than 50/50 to make the play offs but we have to improve slightly. I would still like us to attempt to get automatic promotion for no other reason than I just don’t fancy our chances in the play offs. Get a great run together and we will be climbing that table to third. Is that realistic? Hmmm....

I am not sure about the Carlisle game coming up. They have strung three wins on the trot. That will be no easy romp. As someone else has mentioned, it is not just the points we will get, it is the fact that we need to take points away from some of our rivals.

I am with ‘Supporter’ who stated that experience will be key. The veterans in the squad have to use their experience to ‘game manage’ situations and get us over the line. A week or so ago I was deflated with the run of three losses. Now, after Bolton we are in the hunt again. Bloody County, they do this. The business end of the season is upon us. Cmon the County.
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lowandhard

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Re: Experience will be key.

Postby lowandhard » April 7th, 2021, 8:30 pm

DeePeeNCAFC wrote:I agree with the above views but am of the ‘glass half empty’ view myself (a deliberate ploy by forum users like myself & Corky because we want County to feel wounded and underdogs as we play better when we’ve got something to prove!).

Of the 8 remaining games, I realistically can see us achieving the following -

Away v Mansfield - a win but probably a draw.
Home v Carlisle - I predict an away win here.
Home v Cambridge - they’re top, another away win.
Hone v Crawley - despite their improving form I can’t see beyond a home win.
Away v Exeter - 2 sides chasing play-off places, home win.
Home v Scunthorpe - home win.
Home v Cheltenham - they’re currently second and have been consistently good all season - away win.
Away v Southend - they’ll be battling to avoid relegation so a draw at best methinks.

So I reckon we’ll get 8 points from our final 8 games which would give us 68 points / 1.478 PPG. This would leave us below FGR & Exeter based on their current PPG and finish 9th or 10th.

Sounds about right to me though it’s more than possible to pick up another 3 or 4 so you never know eh? One thing's for sure with the County we’ll do it with the maximum amounts of difficulty and stress if we do so.
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