As it stands, based on every other teams' form so far , we are on track to finish 5 points from the lowest Play-Off spot, 32 points clear of relegation.
We are probably already safe from the drop barring a miracle, so next goal is a top half finish, to do that, currently we need 27 more points.

newgroundrodney wrote:As it stands, based on every other teams' form so far , we are on track to finish 5 points from the lowest Play-Off spot, 32 points clear of relegation.
We are probably already safe from the drop barring a miracle, so next goal is a top half finish, to do that, currently we need 27 more points.

Do your statistics take into account who teams have played at home and away? For instance County have three more home games left than away games. I think our points to games ratio will if maintained see us scrape a play-off spot.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:As it stands, based on every other teams' form so far , we are on track to finish 5 points from the lowest Play-Off spot, 32 points clear of relegation.
We are probably already safe from the drop barring a miracle, so next goal is a top half finish, to do that, currently we need 27 more points.

Do your statistics take into account who teams have played at home and away? For instance County have three more home games left than away games. I think our points to games ratio will if maintained see us scrape a play-off spot.

This is something that I haven't seen mentioned on here too often. If you take a look down the L2 table, you will note that we have played almost all of the top sides away from home, but none of them have come to us yet. Our fate is very much in our own hands and if we can continue building momentum like we have been, we could be in for a very entertaining four months or so!

EDIT - the point being I guess, that I would imagine our run-in will look a lot more favourable than many of the sides sat around us in the table.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:As it stands, based on every other teams' form so far , we are on track to finish 5 points from the lowest Play-Off spot, 32 points clear of relegation.
We are probably already safe from the drop barring a miracle, so next goal is a top half finish, to do that, currently we need 27 more points.

Do your statistics take into account who teams have played at home and away? For instance County have three more home games left than away games. I think our points to games ratio will if maintained see us scrape a play-off spot.

No Stan, cos I think it's false reasoning who teams have yet to play, cos anyone can beat anyone..... I just go by what teams have actually achieved so far.
We're far enough through the season to get a reasonable indicator without worrying who's played whom. If you're having a bet, by all means take those things into account, but that's called prediction.....what I do is projection of form so far, expressed over the remaining games.
I cite Chesterfield beating Luton as my proof for not worrying who teams still have to play, cos on paper, Luton would have been a nailed-on 3 points.

newgroundrodney wrote:
No Stan, cos I think it's false reasoning who teams have yet to play, cos anyone can beat anyone..... I just go by what teams have actually achieved so far.
We're far enough through the season to get a reasonable indicator without worrying who's played whom. If you're having a bet, by all means take those things into account, but that's called prediction.....what I do is projection of form so far, expressed over the remaining games.
I cite Chesterfield beating Luton as my proof for not worrying who teams still have to play, cos on paper, Luton would have been a nailed-on 3 points.

I don't agree with that. Of course County are capable of losing at home to Barnet and winning at Coventry. However teams near the top are there because they win more than they lose. Teams near the bottom because they lose more than they win. Every week there will be more home wins in the League than away wins.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:
No Stan, cos I think it's false reasoning who teams have yet to play, cos anyone can beat anyone..... I just go by what teams have actually achieved so far.
We're far enough through the season to get a reasonable indicator without worrying who's played whom. If you're having a bet, by all means take those things into account, but that's called prediction.....what I do is projection of form so far, expressed over the remaining games.
I cite Chesterfield beating Luton as my proof for not worrying who teams still have to play, cos on paper, Luton would have been a nailed-on 3 points.

I don't agree with that. Of course County are capable of losing at home to Barnet and winning at Coventry. However teams near the top are there because they win more than they lose. Teams near the bottom because they lose more than they win. Every week there will be more home wins in the League than away wins.

Well as the season draws to a close, the situation will become clearer, but where individual teams are in the table, and who has yet to play whom has no bearing on the position we're in NOW........ we'll have to agree to disagree.While we're not mathematically safe, I think history will show that by NOW we'd achieved sufficient points to stay up, but not enough for the play-offs.
Currently, 40 pts will be enough to stay up.

If we can stay in or around the play off places with 10 games to go 7 of our last 10 matches are at home barring re-arranged games.
Would put us right in the mix

Basically if we massively improve our home form we could finish in the play offs. Definitely the home form killing us.

4th I'm the league on away results only but 13th in the league for home results. That's not good enough for a play off side.

newgroundrodney wrote:

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:As it stands, based on every other teams' form so far , we are on track to finish 5 points from the lowest Play-Off spot, 32 points clear of relegation.
We are probably already safe from the drop barring a miracle, so next goal is a top half finish, to do that, currently we need 27 more points.

Do your statistics take into account who teams have played at home and away? For instance County have three more home games left than away games. I think our points to games ratio will if maintained see us scrape a play-off spot.

No Stan, cos I think it's false reasoning who teams have yet to play, cos anyone can beat anyone..... I just go by what teams have actually achieved so far.
We're far enough through the season to get a reasonable indicator without worrying who's played whom. If you're having a bet, by all means take those things into account, but that's called prediction.....what I do is projection of form so far, expressed over the remaining games.
I cite Chesterfield beating Luton as my proof for not worrying who teams still have to play, cos on paper, Luton would have been a nailed-on 3 points.

So what you've basically done then is look at the league table.

I mention that every time NGR makes an end of season forecast, because all it suggests is that positions will stay the same and the points gaps will slightly change, but never in anyone's favour when looking upwards.

MARKY: In part yes, although the current league table only has us at 19 points clear of the drop.

excessbee wrote:I mention that every time NGR makes an end of season forecast.

So if I were to say " we need 7 wins on the bounce to be in any contention to win the division outright" you'd probably pooh-pooh the idea, when actually, that's exactly how far away we ARE from doing so, as it stands......so that's how much improvement would be required. So currently we need 27 more points to guarantee a mid table finish as it stands....

I really can't see what's hard to grasp.
People will come out with all these other stats based on what results teams are likely to get against other teams, when actually none of that matters.

Well it's not difficult to predict what we need to move up the table. An improvement in points per game whilst other teams to fail to do so. The idea that all teams will continue with the same points to games ratio until the end of season is not logical. You're saying, if you want to predict the end of season, just look at the current table and change the points column. The only minor adjustment would be if a team has a game in hand, and at this level that doesn't happen to any great degree.

excessbee wrote:Well it's not difficult to predict what we need to move up the table. An improvement in points per game whilst other teams to fail to do so. The idea that all teams will continue with the same points to games ratio until the end of season is not logical. You're saying, if you want to predict the end of season, just look at the current table and change the points column. The only minor adjustment would be if a team has a game in hand, and at this level that doesn't happen to any great degree.

...... which is why it gets updated. By George, I think you've got it!

newgroundrodney wrote:

excessbee wrote:Well it's not difficult to predict what we need to move up the table. An improvement in points per game whilst other teams to fail to do so. The idea that all teams will continue with the same points to games ratio until the end of season is not logical. You're saying, if you want to predict the end of season, just look at the current table and change the points column. The only minor adjustment would be if a team has a game in hand, and at this level that doesn't happen to any great degree.

...... which is why it gets updated. By George, I think you've got it!

Updated to the same extent that the league table gets updated after every round of matches. But your table is still no different to the current standings. Unfortunately, you don't seem to get it.