Hi Mike,pembsexile wrote:Morning Brendan. Yes I get that bit. The bookies responding to where the money is being laid, i.e. France. Shortening the odds so they don't take a pummelling.
This is the bit I don't understand. Brazil were really short odds favourites and Belgium beat them fair and square. At that time Belgium were the fourth favourites. In my book that makes 'le chips' the ones to beat in this tournament. I could be wrong of course.
I suspect that the professionals will be lumping it on Belgium and laughing at all the punters who may be helping them along the way. For Belgium to be third favourites out of four is ridiculous. As I say, for the professional punters there is serious money to be made. If you like to bet, us mere mortals will just have to accept it.
I used to know a professional gambler. He told me that the trick was to look for the value bet. He said also that in a horserace with three runners the outsider was often at too high a price.
For me France and Belgium are the two best teams left in the competition but clearly one will knock out the other. England will probably pick the sentiment vote. I don't bet myself but if Croatia have odds of more than 5/1 I would suggest that they are good value.
Edit
Just checked. Croatia are 5/1.