Re: Experience will be key.
16We need to play better than we have post Christmas is my in depth analysis
Never before in the field of football conflict have so many points been owed by so many (teams) to so few (fans).excessbee wrote:Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's not just about how many matches we win, but whom we beat. Beating Cambridge and Cheltenham will be less important than beating Carlisle and Exeter. What also needs to be factored in is how many of the chasing pack have to play each other. I'm sticking with my plan of reassessment after each round of matches. Never before has the cliche of 'take each match as it comes' been more appropriate.
Stick to coin collecting pembspembsexile wrote:Never before in the field of football conflict have so many points been owed by so many (teams) to so few (fans).excessbee wrote:Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's not just about how many matches we win, but whom we beat. Beating Cambridge and Cheltenham will be less important than beating Carlisle and Exeter. What also needs to be factored in is how many of the chasing pack have to play each other. I'm sticking with my plan of reassessment after each round of matches. Never before has the cliche of 'take each match as it comes' been more appropriate.
That's a great thing about numbers Pembs, you can play with them all day long. Another way of looking at the same thing is how many points was one more than the eighth placed team in each season i.e. enough to just scrape into the playoffs. The figures then become:pembsexile wrote:
Recent previous seasons are a pretty reliable indicator (not guaranteed though) of what is required for the playoffs. If we take 7th place;
In 2019 County got 7th with 71 points
In 2018 Lincoln got 7th with 75 points
In 2017 Blackpool got 7th with 70 points
In 2016 Wimbledon got 7th with 75 points
In 2015 Plymouth got 7th with 71 points
If we repeat our last 8 game average of points per game (1.5), we will end up on 72 points. This average is slightly below our season average. I suggest we need to improve our points per game average and get a final points tally of at least 74 points. 14 out of 24 available. We are probably not going to go undefeated as we have some tough games coming up. Four wins and two draws, that should suffice. We can certainly do it if we manage to repeat our form of the first part of the season.
Late season consistency, that is the key. Carlisle are on a run, we need to watch the teams below us as they will push on. The teams above us in the playoffs seem to be faltering slightly. This probably won’t last and they may turn it around. We need to take advantage now.
74 points this season is my prediction of what is required for 7th place.
Top 3 is not even close to being beyond us, based on numbers alone. It's the fact we generally haven't been playing well which unfortunately makes it unlikely.Amberexile wrote:That's a great thing about numbers Pembs, you can play with them all day long. Another way of looking at the same thing is how many points was one more than the eighth placed team in each season i.e. enough to just scrape into the playoffs. The figures then become:pembsexile wrote:
Recent previous seasons are a pretty reliable indicator (not guaranteed though) of what is required for the playoffs. If we take 7th place;
In 2019 County got 7th with 71 points
In 2018 Lincoln got 7th with 75 points
In 2017 Blackpool got 7th with 70 points
In 2016 Wimbledon got 7th with 75 points
In 2015 Plymouth got 7th with 71 points
If we repeat our last 8 game average of points per game (1.5), we will end up on 72 points. This average is slightly below our season average. I suggest we need to improve our points per game average and get a final points tally of at least 74 points. 14 out of 24 available. We are probably not going to go undefeated as we have some tough games coming up. Four wins and two draws, that should suffice. We can certainly do it if we manage to repeat our form of the first part of the season.
Late season consistency, that is the key. Carlisle are on a run, we need to watch the teams below us as they will push on. The teams above us in the playoffs seem to be faltering slightly. This probably won’t last and they may turn it around. We need to take advantage now.
74 points this season is my prediction of what is required for 7th place.
In 2019 Colchester got 8th with 70 points so 71 were required
In 2018 Mansfield got 8th with 72 points so 73 were required
In 2017 Colchester got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2016 Orient got 8th with 69 points so 70 were required
In 2015 Luton got 8th with 68 points so 69 were required
I reckon your 74 is a good target for this season as top three is probably beyond us now.
Sounds about right to me though it’s more than possible to pick up another 3 or 4 so you never know eh? One thing's for sure with the County we’ll do it with the maximum amounts of difficulty and stress if we do so.DeePeeNCAFC wrote:I agree with the above views but am of the ‘glass half empty’ view myself (a deliberate ploy by forum users like myself & Corky because we want County to feel wounded and underdogs as we play better when we’ve got something to prove!).
Of the 8 remaining games, I realistically can see us achieving the following -
Away v Mansfield - a win but probably a draw.
Home v Carlisle - I predict an away win here.
Home v Cambridge - they’re top, another away win.
Hone v Crawley - despite their improving form I can’t see beyond a home win.
Away v Exeter - 2 sides chasing play-off places, home win.
Home v Scunthorpe - home win.
Home v Cheltenham - they’re currently second and have been consistently good all season - away win.
Away v Southend - they’ll be battling to avoid relegation so a draw at best methinks.
So I reckon we’ll get 8 points from our final 8 games which would give us 68 points / 1.478 PPG. This would leave us below FGR & Exeter based on their current PPG and finish 9th or 10th.
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