If we win Saturday then and only then will i believe

The NCFC Hippy wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:Currently, following the Notts County (a) game, in relation to all other teams, we need an improvement of 11.04% to occupy the lowest Play-Off spot. That's down from 15.0%.

correct me if i'm wrong. and I'm not the best at maths, would that mean with there being 15 games left that we need to win 1.5 more of them than we usually would of on our 'average' results from flynns tenure?

It's percentages gone mad in my eyes. I prefer to think of it as (if you are looking only at Carlisle current points tally), we need to accrue seven more points than them over the remaining matches, but of course we still have to play Carlisle so that throws that calculation out of the window. Within a few weeks it won't be Carlisle who are seventh anyhow. The general idea is we need a better points per match return than at present. We all know that.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:Fourteen games left. No danger of relegation. To make the playoffs we need to win games. Draws are defeats. Eight wins, one draw, five defeats = 71 points and a realistic chance of the playoffs. Nine wins, one draw and three defeats = 74 points which should be enough. Our goal difference isn't going to come into play, thanks Yeovil, really big ask but not impossible.

If we win 13 of our remaining 14 games we will get automatic promotion. If we lose 13 we might get relegated. I don't think for one moment we'll do either.

I think a few more 4 - 1 's would do wonders to reduce our substantial goal deficit..

It's by no means out of our grasp but we need to follow it up with a win on Saturday.

Interestingly we are 16-1 for promotion with my bookies which is 12th favourite which means they too think our current league position is slightly out of kilter -
I agree Saturday is important as we if we are going to go on a run of form we need then we obvs need to start ASAP - I’d take a draw up there all day long and push on from then -
Well impressed with out eagerness of play at notts county - there’s definitely something in the water - I think we will make it to the play offs -
UTC

The NCFC Hippy wrote:Interestingly we are 16-1 for promotion with my bookies which is 12th favourite which means they too think our current league position is slightly out of kilter -
I agree Saturday is important as we if we are going to go on a run of form we need then we obvs need to start ASAP - I’d take a draw up there all day long and push on from then -
Well impressed with out eagerness of play at notts county - there’s definitely something in the water - I think we will make it to the play offs -
UTC

Currently, in terms of points collected per game, comparing the same with all other teams, County are the 12th best team in the division. To be the 7th best team, would require an improvement of 11.04% above and beyond the points haul we would normally have expected to make based on our performance in the League so far. Some of the improvement will be achieved by other teams dropping points. It stands to reason, that a team on the same number of points having played one game fewer, is a better team than the other.
That's where we stand at present..... in other words, if all teams continue to collect points per game at the rate they have so far, County will finish 12th on 66 pts. Curiously, we are in the SAME position as we were on 1st January....over 7 weeks ago, yet people fret that somehow we're going to drop 11 places in 10 weeks. The thing is, OTHER teams are playing too. Which people forget sometimes.

Interestingly, the most improved team is Notts County.

newgroundrodney wrote:

The NCFC Hippy wrote:Interestingly we are 16-1 for promotion with my bookies which is 12th favourite which means they too think our current league position is slightly out of kilter -
I agree Saturday is important as we if we are going to go on a run of form we need then we obvs need to start ASAP - I’d take a draw up there all day long and push on from then -
Well impressed with out eagerness of play at notts county - there’s definitely something in the water - I think we will make it to the play offs -
UTC

Currently, in terms of points collected per game, comparing the same with all other teams, County are the 12th best team in the division. To be the 7th best team, would require an improvement of 11.04% above and beyond the points haul we would normally have expected to make based on our performance in the League so far. Some of the improvement will be achieved by other teams dropping points. It stands to reason, that a team on the same number of points having played one game fewer, is a better team than the other.
That's where we stand at present..... in other words, if all teams continue to collect points per game at the rate they have so far, County will finish 12th on 66 pts. Curiously, we are in the SAME position as we were on 1st January....over 7 weeks ago, yet people fret that somehow we're going to drop 11 places in 10 weeks. The thing is, OTHER teams are playing too. Which people forget sometimes.

Interestingly, the most improved team is Notts County.

And they currently need a Great Escape of their own !!!

We just need to win our home games and pick up points away where we can .
We've still got to play a few teams around about where we are in The League . Beat those and we're in business I'd say .

Agree that a win on Saturday would really get the momentum going again and no team will relish playing us then .

I think we can do it ......
UTC

For anyone interested, with 14 games to go, our form over our most recent 14 games has yielded 1 pt per game....if replicated over the remaining 14 games, our season would likely finish as 16th on 60 pts.
Personally I cannot see us finishing any lower than that, but probably no higher than 6th on 74 pts either.

newgroundrodney wrote:For anyone interested, with 14 games to go, our form over our most recent 14 games has yielded 1 pt per game....if replicated over the remaining 14 games, our season would likely finish as 16th on 60 pts.
Personally I cannot see us finishing any lower than that, but probably no higher than 6th on 74 pts either.

Agree entirely.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:For anyone interested, with 14 games to go, our form over our most recent 14 games has yielded 1 pt per game....if replicated over the remaining 14 games, our season would likely finish as 16th on 60 pts.
Personally I cannot see us finishing any lower than that, but probably no higher than 6th on 74 pts either.

Agree entirely.

Me too. I expect our average form from here to the end of the season to be somewhere between average bottom of the league form (1 point per game) and average promotion form (2 points per game). Beyond that, from our up and down season so far, it's impossible to say. Not that it isn't great fun to speculate however.

Purely to keep a few moaners quiet, I'd like to see us gain more than last season's 64 points. I appreciate that's not the definitive measure of progress, but it will do for me. Our biggest improvement surely has to be having two prolific goalscorers. However, third place is lagging far behind!

One thing for sure , is if we are to do it, we will have to do it the hard way. remaining games (not in order - current league positions): with 5 of the next 14 games against teams below us in table, mostly away when they could be fighting for their lives.

Homes:
Oldham 11th
tranmere 9th
bury 2nd
lincoln 1st
carlisle 7th
swindon 14th
cheltenham 18th

away:
mk dons 4th colchester 6th northampton 16th yeovil 22nd cambridge 19th Macclesfield 23rd morecombe 20th

having said that, from the spring in our step against notts county i'm putting my chin on the line and saying we just make the play offs. UTC

excessbee wrote:Purely to keep a few moaners quiet, I'd like to see us gain more than last season's 64 points. I appreciate that's not the definitive measure of progress, but it will do for me. Our biggest improvement surely has to be having two prolific goalscorers. However, third place is lagging far behind!

Absolutely agree with this. For me, something like 9th place, on something like 67 pts would be an improvement. Plus we've got some money in the bank.

The NCFC Hippy wrote:One thing for sure , is if we are to do it, we will have to do it the hard way. remaining games (not in order - current league positions): with 5 of the next 14 games against teams below us in table, mostly away when they could be fighting for their lives.

Homes:
Oldham 11th
tranmere 9th
bury 2nd
lincoln 1st
carlisle 7th
swindon 14th
cheltenham 18th

away:
mk dons 4th colchester 6th northampton 16th yeovil 22nd cambridge 19th Macclesfield 23rd morecombe 20th

having said that, from the spring in our step against notts county i'm putting my chin on the line and saying we just make the play offs. UTC

Some would say, " It was only Notts County. Wait til you come up against someone that can actually PLAY the game!"....
Seriously though, I think looking at who we've got to play, and where they are in the table, is not what I do. I look at the numbers in relation to all other teams. Remember, like horses in a race, some of the other teams will be working in our favour too.
We only need a relatively slight improvement to reach the Play-Offs as it stands.
To be clear, I don't think we'll quite do it.

25+ points from a possible 39 points I believe will see us in the play off’s