G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 2:38 pm The current top 5 clubs are listed below with their position in the 5 match current form table shown. All of them except Crewe are in decline. We are catching them up.

1 Stockport 11th
2 Wrexham 8th
3 Mansfield 16th
4 Barrow 18th
5 Crewe 1st
6 MK Dons 9th
7 Notts County 10th

16 Newport County 2nd

I think the 10-game form table is a bit more reasonable metric for extrapolation. On that we just miss out to Harrogate, who take the last playoff spot. But Harrogate have been on a decent run for a time now and may be due a downturn... as may we! The only thing keeping Notts Co in the playoff frame at the mo is their early season form. But again, their late poor form may also turn around. And if it does, they are well placed to move back towards the automatic spots.

It's a funny game, football. The outcomes can't ordinarily be predicted with any degree of surety.

NearlyDead wrote: January 31st, 2024, 3:14 pm

G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 2:38 pm The current top 5 clubs are listed below with their position in the 5 match current form table shown. All of them except Crewe are in decline. We are catching them up.

1 Stockport 11th
2 Wrexham 8th
3 Mansfield 16th
4 Barrow 18th
5 Crewe 1st
6 MK Dons 9th
7 Notts County 10th

16 Newport County 2nd

I think the 10-game form table is a bit more reasonable metric for extrapolation. On that we just miss out to Harrogate, who take the last playoff spot. But Harrogate have been on a decent run for a time now and may be due a downturn... as may we! The only thing keeping Notts Co in the playoff frame at the mo is their early season form. But again, their late poor form may also turn around. And if it does, they are well placed to move back towards the automatic spots.

It's a funny game, football. The outcomes can't ordinarily be predicted with any degree of surety.

Totally agree, I think many of us don’t allow for just how much Lady Luck gets to influence our game and not only during the game. Form, injuries etc all have an influence.

Of course you cannot extrapolate accurately. There are very many variables. But the point is that extrapolation shows that we are still in with a chance and also that that chance is improving. Giving up now and forcing the manager to start again in August is not justified.

G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 4:58 pm Of course you cannot extrapolate accurately. There are very many variables. But the point is that extrapolation shows that we are still in with a chance and also that that chance is improving. Giving up now and forcing the manager to start again in August is not justified.

With that I would tend to agree.

NearlyDead wrote: January 31st, 2024, 5:29 pm

G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 4:58 pm Of course you cannot extrapolate accurately. There are very many variables. But the point is that extrapolation shows that we are still in with a chance and also that that chance is improving. Giving up now and forcing the manager to start again in August is not justified.

With that I would tend to agree.

I agree entirely that we are still in with a chance. However I think it is remote. We not only have to catch Notts County but also every team above us in the League between ourselves and Notts County. I think that you will find that the final play-off place will require 72 or 73 points. Which means we need two points a game. 11 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats does it. And I don't think that, anything other than an outside chance.

G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 4:58 pm Of course you cannot extrapolate accurately. There are very many variables. But the point is that extrapolation shows that we are still in with a chance and also that that chance is improving. Giving up now and forcing the manager to start again in August is not justified.

It would certainly be a kick in the teeth for anybody who has just bought a half season ticket.

FGR are on course for 31 points, Sutton 33, we are safe, pessimism is thinking we'll come 17th.

Marky wrote: January 31st, 2024, 7:55 pm FGR are on course for 31 points, Sutton 33, we are safe, pessimism is thinking we'll come 17th.

Quite. If we do contrive to lose 18 consecutive games then we will be in a relegation struggle. That though I would bet the farm on not happening. I don't entirely rule out promotion but we need two points a game to make the play-offs and then we have a one in four chance of going up.

Paul's point is in my view a better one. Selling Evans or Delaney would be a bit of a kick in the teeth for those buying half season tickets. That said if doing so allowed us to be really competitive next year would those people mind.

To be clear I don't have a clear view on this. I suspect there is no right or wrong. However I am interested in the views of others.

lowandhard wrote: January 31st, 2024, 3:33 pm

NearlyDead wrote: January 31st, 2024, 3:14 pm

G Guest wrote: January 31st, 2024, 2:38 pm The current top 5 clubs are listed below with their position in the 5 match current form table shown. All of them except Crewe are in decline. We are catching them up.

1 Stockport 11th
2 Wrexham 8th
3 Mansfield 16th
4 Barrow 18th
5 Crewe 1st
6 MK Dons 9th
7 Notts County 10th

16 Newport County 2nd

I think the 10-game form table is a bit more reasonable metric for extrapolation. On that we just miss out to Harrogate, who take the last playoff spot. But Harrogate have been on a decent run for a time now and may be due a downturn... as may we! The only thing keeping Notts Co in the playoff frame at the mo is their early season form. But again, their late poor form may also turn around. And if it does, they are well placed to move back towards the automatic spots.

It's a funny game, football. The outcomes can't ordinarily be predicted with any degree of surety.

Totally agree, I think many of us don’t allow for just how much Lady Luck gets to influence our game and not only during the game. Form, injuries etc all have an influence.

Agreed, these factors certainly have an influence. My view is that we need to accumulate as many points as possible, primarily to keep us safe. I don’t think we are getting promoted but we need to ensure we have enough to keep us safe. I won’t stop being concerned until we are mathematically certain to stay in L2.

It seems that three of our key players are possibly in the shop window. Evans, Delaney and McCloughlin. How many points would we not have gained had they not been there? If one, two or all three go, (unlikely to happen) how many points would we lose out on?

If we were still in the perilous position of a few months ago I would probably have said ‘take the money’ as we need to survive. Things change in football quite rapidly and this is one of those times. Different times, different priorities. Points please.

I think County need to try to build on the good fortune of playing Man Utd in the FA Cup. That involves keeping your players and attempting to get that 7th place. The next two games are decidedly winnable and if County can do that then the Notts County game becomes a very interesting one.

I think it's important to show ambition and selling players and giving up on even a faint chance of making the play-offs just sends the message that County have no ambition. And a decent run at the play-offs will help the bank balance until such time that it is effectively no longer on.

Showing ambition may influence players to stay for the journey next season...

Agree with the last 2 posters, points not pounds please! The season still has a way to go!

I am enjoying your views. Now if I may, I will throw another consideration into the box. Specifically Will Evan as his contract to all intents only three months left to run.

If I were him I would see out my contract with Newport. He, and no doubt his agent knows his worth. A club might take the view that he is worth let's say £450,000 for three years of his service. The figure doesn't matter just concentrate on the point. It won't matter to a buying club where the money goes. Now if Will Evans cost a transfer fee of say £100,000 he will receive over three years £350,000. If he sees out his contract he gets the hundred grand. Spare me he owes us, if he hadn't been a success he would not have been offered a new contract.

So in truth unless Will Evans is an idiot, he will do what I would do. Of course it may be that we can hold on to him in the summer but it's going to cost us.

But the real question is, should we cash in on Mcloughlin and Delaney, if not now at the end of the season?

Feel free to disagree with my analysis. As ever I'll be interested in your thoughts.

Oh and my view. I don't know. However if I were negotiating contracts for Newport County I would sign all players on one year rolling contracts. That being either side, player or club, would need to give one year's notice to end the contract.

If as a club we can't sell Dom Telford, at this time of the season, because we were third in the table, and you can't sell good strikers if we are in danger of relegation, when can you cash in?

Bangitintrnet wrote: February 1st, 2024, 8:50 am If as a club we can't sell Dom Telford, at this time of the season, because we were third in the table, and you can't sell good strikers if we are in danger of relegation, when can you cash in?

Telford only had six months left on his contract I think it is hard to get good money for players that can move for free in the summer - look at the players we have lost for nothing at contract end and that is the problem of not cashing in.

The model has to be better recruitment 2 year min contracts with option of third, which gives you four windows to cash in, use cash to repeat with better players, cash in , repeat cash in repeat etc as you climb the leagues. I think this may well be the HJ model.